Paris Climate Change Conference, 2015 (COP 21; CMP 11)

Let us first understand why Paris 2015 is considered a turning point in global climate governance.

Till the Kyoto Protocol, climate action was top-down—targets were imposed mainly on developed countries. This created resistance and limited participation. Paris changed the philosophy altogether.

Why was Paris Summit so important?

• It was the most crucial climate conference after Kyoto.
• For the first time, all countries—developed and developing—came on a single platform.
• The focus shifted from “who must reduce” to “how much can each country realistically contribute”.

Before the summit:

• 146 countries submitted draft INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions).
• Unlike Kyoto, no rigid country-wise emission targets or timetables were imposed.

👉 This ensured universal participation, even from major polluters like China, the US, and India.

📜 Paris Agreement: Core Framework

The outcome of COP-21 was the historic Paris Agreement.

Key Features:

• A legally binding international treaty on climate change.
• Adopted by 196 Parties in Paris (2015).
• Entered into force in 2016, after:
  • Ratification by 55 countries
  • Accounting for 55% of global emissions

🇮🇳 India signed and ratified the agreement in 2016.

What is Ratification?

• Signing shows intent.
• Ratification means formal consent under domestic law to be legally bound by the treaty.

🌡️ Temperature Goals under Paris Agreement

The Agreement sets clear long-term climate goals:

1. Limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
2. Pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C (aspirational goal).

What does this imply?

• Net zero anthropogenic GHG emissions must be achieved in the second half of the 21st century.
• For the 1.5°C pathway, global net zero emissions are required between 2030–2050.

💰 Climate Finance Commitment

• Developed countries reaffirmed the pledge of mobilising $100 billion per year by 2020.
• This commitment was extended till 2025.
• Funds are meant for:
  • Mitigation
  • Adaptation
  • Capacity building in developing countries

⚠️ A major criticism: Actual delivery of finance has lagged behind promises.

🇺🇸 US Withdrawal Episode

• In 2017, the US announced its withdrawal.
• It formally exited in November 2020 (though it later rejoined under a new administration).

🌱 Climate Neutral Now Initiative

Launched by the UNFCCC Secretariat in 2015.

Objective:

To encourage individuals, companies, and governments to contribute towards a climate-neutral world by mid-century.

Three-Step Process:

1. Measure climate footprint
2. Reduce emissions as much as possible
3. Offset unavoidable emissions using UN-certified emission reductions

🤝 China–US Deal on Emission Cuts

Just before the Paris Summit:

• US committed to reduce emissions 26–28% below 2005 levels by 2025.
• China committed to:
  • Peak CO₂ emissions by 2030
  • Increase non-fossil fuel share to 20%

📌 Impact on India:

• India’s per capita emissions:
  • ~1/10th of the US
  • ~1/4th of China
• Yet, the deal increased pressure on India to make voluntary commitments.

⚖️ Net Zero Emissions & Carbon Neutrality

Definitions:

• Net Zero: Emissions released ≤ emissions removed.
• Carbon Neutrality: Net zero CO₂ emissions specifically.

Global Requirement:

• 45% emission reduction by 2030
• Net zero by 2050 to limit warming to 1.5°C

This requires:

• Phasing out coal
• Complete shift to renewables

Current Status:

• Major emitters like China, US, and India have not legally committed to net zero yet.
• Countries with net zero legislation: Sweden, Norway, UK, France, New Zealand
  ➡️ Only Sweden targets net zero before 2050

🌳 Suriname and Bhutan are the only carbon-negative countries.

🛠️ How Can Net Zero Be Achieved?

Key Strategies:

• Clean coal technology (short term)
• Carbon sequestration
• Afforestation (carbon sinks)
• Geoengineering (last resort)
• Electric mobility & renewable energy
• Carbon tax & carbon trading

Underlying Principle:

👉 Polluter Pays Principle

• Implemented through:
  • Carbon Tax
  • Emission Trading Schemes

🇪🇺 European Green New Deal

• EU initially committed to 40% emission reduction by 2030 (1990 baseline).
• Under the Green Deal:
  • Target increased to 50–55%
  • Climate neutrality by 2050

⚠️ Even the earlier 40% target was the most ambitious among developed nations.

🇮🇳 India’s Objection to Net Zero Targets

India’s argument is legally and ethically grounded:

1. Net zero is not mentioned in the Paris Agreement.
2. Paris focuses on INDCs, not externally imposed targets.
3. Opening parallel discussions dilutes existing commitments.
4. India needs:
   • Rapid economic growth
   • Affordable energy
5. Carbon removal technologies are:
   • Expensive
   • Unreliable at scale

📌 India is on track to over-achieve all three Paris targets.

📊 UNEP Emissions Gap Report (EGR)

Released annually by UNEP. Managed by the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre.

Purpose: To measure the gap between required action and actual action to meet Paris goals.

Emissions Gap Report (EGR) 2026 – Key Findings

Temperature Outlook

• The 17th edition, titled “The point of return”, assesses a “lowest possible” overshoot of the 1.5°C limit.
• Peak warming around mid-century is limited to 1.7–1.8°C, returning to 1.5°C by 2100 with about a 50% chance.
• Full implementation of NDCs would cut emissions only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, limiting warming this century to only 2.6°C.

Required Emissions Cuts

• To follow the “lowest possible” overshoot pathway, emissions must fall (relative to 2025 levels) by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040.
• Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is needed alongside these cuts.
• New sectoral benchmarks are proposed, building on the first Global Stocktake.

📈 EGR Trend at a Glance (2022–2026)

EGR	Warming: current policies	Warming: full NDCs	Headline points
EGR 2022	2.8°C	2.4–2.6°C	Pledges made since COP26 cut less than 1% off projected 2030 emissions; 45% is needed for 1.5°C
EGR 2023	~3°C	—	Record 57.4 GtCO₂e in 2022; even in the most optimistic scenario, only a 14% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C
EGR 2024	Up to 3.1°C	2.6–2.8°C	Record 57.1 GtCO₂e in 2023; 42% cut needed by 2030 for 1.5°C, with 7.5% to be shaved off every year until 2035
EGR 2025: Off Target	Up to 2.8°C	2.3–2.5°C	Record 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024 (+2.3%); full NDCs cut 2035 emissions by only ~15% against 2019, versus 55% needed for 1.5°C; overshoot above 1.5°C now unavoidable
EGR 2026: The Point of Return	2.8°C	2.6°C	Projections worse than last year’s, owing to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions

Other Verified Points from Earlier Reports

• Net-zero pledges (EGR 2023): cover around 80% of global emissions, yet only nine countries had submitted new or updated NDCs since COP27.
• Cost of net-zero (EGR 2024): incremental investment of US$0.9–2.1 trillion per year from 2021 to 2050.
• Major emitters (EGR 2025): G20 members (excluding the African Union) account for 77% of global emissions; G20 emissions rose 0.7% in 2024.

This topic is covered under the Environment notes series designed for UPSC Prelims, Mains, and Interview preparation.